Out of Tune - Industry Admits the Future of the Auto is not Green

Well, now it is really obvious, on the off-chance it was not obvious before.

All the ads with furry critters fawning in the forest over SUVs.
All the breathless claims that the electric car is finally here.
All the ads showing cars crumbling back to the earth leaving not a trace.
All pure propaganda.

While they may have be singing a green tune in New York in May, now, their actions and their wallets, or in GM's case, our wallets, are speaking louder than words. Even after being wiped out by high oil prices and an almost depression, only to be saved by taxpayers, the Wall Street Journal reports that Mileage Rules Prompt Backlash while Fox News states that Auto makers fight Obama's fuel standards.

Auto makers and car dealers, emboldened by rising profits and a more business-friendly Congress, say they will fight the Obama administration's proposal to boost average new-car fuel economy to as much as 62 miles a gallon by 2025.

Clearly, they would not be doing this if they had any faith that people would be buying electric vehicles in the next couple of decades. Clearly, they don't and people won't. As was the case for the last 40 years, when the electric car was continually "just around the corner", with the breakthrough in battery technology just months away, like lite and low-tar cigarettes, the electric car is simply a propaganda tool to convince the public that there is a fabulous future for the automobile age once fossil fuels are going, going, gone.

The Windsor Star on December 15, 1967 reported AMC out front electrically.

...indications are good that vehicles like those under serious consideration by a growing number of companies could be available in five years or sooner. ...AMC group vice-president in charge of engineering, told us that there are no major hurdles to jump to bring it to reality-firming up the final design and time-consuming proving and testing are all that remains to be done. It's that simple, he said.

Unbelievably,  further details from The Owosso Argus-Press December 12, 1967 seem identically to the claims being made today by the industry. As today, they are claiming lithium batteries are the major breakthrough.

Dr. Leslie K. Gulton said. "for the first time in half a century, the gasoline burning automobile is about the share the road with an electrically powered car whose performance needs no apologies.

Well, 43 years later, this car is still not here nor is AMC for that matter. It is that simple. I guess we should all be happy that the industry is so committed to the environment it seems to be recycling old AMC PR spin pretty much verbatim except for the part about taking it to the heliport. I guess if it still works, why bother changing it. Fool us once, shame on them, fool us over and over again every five years, well...

Speaking of which, they were at it again in March 1974. The Beaver County Times reported Electric Car Ready by June.

Improvements in the already patented battery will estend [sic] the range to 350 miles in two years. A prototype 18 months down the road includes a battery pack that could be charged in 5 minutes...

Paul Agarwa, head of General Motors, electrical-vehicle research and development, says that by the year 2000 almost all cars will be electric in and around cities....

Skipping forward to today, it looks like the PR departments still spinning the same old lines. Fortunately, we can get a better idea of what the industry really thinks the future holds from their high paid lobbyists. The industry lobby group, the Auto Alliance, knows that electric vehicles will not be economically viable especially in an economy with stagnant wages.

"If the economics for high fuel-economy vehicles is so overwhelming, why do so few consumers today choose to buy high fuel-economy vehicles?" the letter asks.

The alliance added that at the very least, the price of a car would increase $4,448 under the 62-mpg rule.

This is not surprising as the battery packs of even tiny electric cars like the Nissan Leaf cost around $18,000. Imagine what the battery for huge SUV's the industry is convinced Americans love that are two to three times the weight of the Leaf would cost. For a family with two of the these beasts, the batteries could cost more than their house in the post bubble market. While "economies of scale" could reduce this cost, high demand could also increase the cost of the resources required to make the batteries.

Even worse, GM, the so called Government Motors, that is owned by the US, Canadian and Ontario governments is now spending dollars that it would not have if it were not for taxpayer's support.

GM, which had stopped making campaign contributions as it underwent its taxpayer-funded bankruptcy restructuring, recently resumed such spending, giving thousands of dollars to lawmakers' campaigns in the midterm election. GM has said it is exercising its right to support lawmakers who will push policies that help the industry.

Looks like the industry created the best congress money could buy.

Even worser, in spite of ads bragging about how safe their products are, they are concerned far more concerned with profits than the safety of their customers or innocent victims of their products.

Auto makers lobbied heavily against a bill to mandate new safety technologies and increased government oversight, which was proposed in response to the uproar over Toyota Motor Corp.'s sudden acceleration recalls. That legislation now appears all but dead.

Unfortunately, not only is the legislation dead but tragically, the million people who are killed by motor vehicles each and every year will be as well.

So, it is time to face the reality that the age of the automobile is over. It is merely a symptom of cheap oil. With the auto industry fighting mileage standards and unwilling or unable to bring fuel efficient cars to bring anywhere enough electric and fuel efficient cars to market in the next couple of decades, lets stop wasting limited taxpayer's dollars on roads and begin the transition to real sustainable transportation including high speed rail, rapid transit, cycling and walking.

change.gov:The Main Train Drains the Planes in Spain

Seems like the Spanish are jumping off planes and onto trains in record numbers, leading to the unfortunate rhyming of headlines all around the Net. The planes in Spain carried 20 percent  fewer fed up victims last year. 

According to Wired Autopia, "Airlines carried 72 percent of the 4.8 million long-distance travelers who opted to go by rail or air in 2007. That fell to 60 percent last year". Joseph Valls, a professor at the ESADE business school in Barcelona told The Guardian "The numbers will be equal in two years." This is really "Change We Can Believe In" as it is actually happening.

Again from Wired, "Alberto Garcia of the Spanish Railways Foundation estimates AVE trains use 19 percent less energy than conventional trains and generate one-sixth the carbon emissions of a plane."

By 2020, Spain plans on building 10,000 more km of high-speed rail. Over here, at least California is planning on building some, if it doesn't go totally bankrupt and is repossessed by Mexico first. Or would that be Spain. Not sure. Anyway, it is time the US and Canada get cracking and stop wasting money on roads and make massive investments in high speed rail and rapid transit.

The so called "Green Stimulus" plan of Obama is really disappointing. It calls for $30 billion for roads and only $10 billion for transit and rail. In fact, the amount for high speed rail is only $1.5 billion while there is $2 billion for batteries. That doesn't really seem like much of a change at all. 

Fortunately, the people are a step or two ahead. They have forgotten all about electric cars which now seem oh so mid 2008. Back when oil prices were high and people still could afford expensive cars by taking out second or third zero percent mortgages on their McMansions. Now $40,000 cars that you have to plug-in don't seem like such a great idea.

Electric cars are the "solution" for everyone else. The people that people believe will never get out of their cars. Yet, when asked what they want, people ask for better transportation, not a electric band aid that will not make getting around any more convenient, faster or more enjoyable. It is problem solving instead of looking for better solutions and new opportunities. If that thinking had prevailed one hundred years ago, we would be riding around on horses with diapers.

It is not electric cars or more roads that people really want, it is high speed rail and rapid transit. Fortunately the people sending this message out clear and strong at Obama's site, change.gov. The top 20 or so ideas contain five or six that are related to rail and transit. Electric cars, not so much.

Let the soon to be Prez know that you want high speed rail and rapid transit at change.gov

It is the forth most popular idea. Your vote can help make it the top idea.

While you are at it, support my Billions for Bicycles idea which doesn't seem to be as popular. At least it faired better than Put Warning Labels on Cars and Ban Irresponsible Auto Advertising, which seem to be dropping in popularity faster than the stocks of the small three automakers.

Last of all, the reason why the world should be happy I didn't become a poet or more likely, the reason why I could not become one. Enjoy?

After the day began on the plain main train through plains of grain, to my bane, the insane rain in Spain sustained, drained my brain again, dry hopes in vain, restrained, waned, feigned. What a inane pain to gain raising cain, last obtained on stained lanes of Danes.

The Future Has not Happened Yet

After several hours of pouring over the news of Obama’s historic victory with tears of joy in my eyes, it is time to reflect on what happened and the hard work ahead. The change has just begun.

I witnessed the election of the first African American President from a smoke-free bar in Vancouver. A mere forty years ago, I’m not sure which would have seemed more improbable.

When Vancouver first tried to ban smoking in bars and restaurants, the industry was up in arms, predicting economic disaster and the end of civilization as we know it. They showed up on mass at public meetings and lobbied intensely. Fortunately civic leaders stuck to their guns. Their fears failed to materialize. They were forced to improve their food because people can now taste it. If anything, smoke-free bars are now attracting people that used avoid smoky pits.

Early this year, when the city proposed banning smoking from even out door patios, nobody said a peep. I guess they realized, that with only 13% of the population smoking, it is no big deal.

As big a battle as it has been to reduce the scourge of tobacco, it pales in comparison to the oppression and huge challenges African Americans have overcome. A struggle that threatened to tear the nation apart. Many brave people have risked their lives to make yesterday possible. Many have died.

In both cases, it would have been easier for many to simply accept that the future would be the same as the past. But people of courage and vision knew the future will be different if they took a stand for what is right. They knew that change is not only possible, it is inevitable if we believe and fight for it. That change is all we have. That change is the hope of a better world, in the face of seems impossible. They knew from the bottom of their heart, without knowing how or when, that the future had not happened yet.

Our ability to anticipate events is perhaps one of our greatest strengths. It saves us from floods, earthquakes and famine. It is also our greatest obstacles to a better world. The future is a wild horse that can’t be tamed. At best, we do our best to hang on and hope for the best. While anticipation is a gift, our ability to chance is what gives us the wings to soar above what many were sure that was all that was possible.

We may never create a perfect world but it is only through the striving for that which we are sure is not possible that we approach our potential.

While taken time to celebrate our victories, we must chart our course forward to overcome the many challenges facing the world today.

Eclipsed, and rightly so, by Obama’s accomplishment, yesterday also witnessed the start of another chapter in the history of change. This time, it is change for the sake of the planet. \The people of California, in spite or perhaps because of the financial crisis, approved $10 billion dollars to start building high-speed rail from San Diego to Sacramento. The state that road to greatness of endless freeways, now is starting to turn its back on the automobile. This is a bold step that, in the next forty years will transform California and indeed the whole country.

For those that think the only path forward is greener fuels and vehicles, Californian’s rejected propositions for alternative fuel vehicles and renewable energy bonds; and renewable energy generation.

For those too busy predicting the future to invent it.

For those too absorbed in small drama to notice people’s passion for chance, open your eyes.

For those ruled by the truisms “People love their cars” and “You’ll never get people out of their cars.”, I stood as a witness of the election of an African American president in a smoke free bar.

Yes We Did, Yes We Can and Yes We Will

The future has not happened yet.

The Ability to Lead

In spite of my near addition to election coverage, this is the first time I’ve chimed up on the race. With all that has been written and rewritten in the last two years, I am not sure what I can really add that hasn’t been said by people who can say it far better than I can but here goes.

It has certainly been a race that has evoked passionate debate. However, I do believe there is a critical difference between the candidates that pretty much everyone can agree on. The difference certainly isn’t policy. People will likely never agree on what is the best policy. Nor should we. Healthy debate is good. The future has not happened yet, so there is really there is no way of being sure what works and doesn’t work.

It is perhaps execution that is more important that the policy anyway. Whether you agree with the policies of President Bush or not, it is much easier to agree that current administration’s execution has been truly awful. From the war to the economy, the lack of competence has been truly staggering. And don’t forget, George Bush by most accounts was a fine governor of Texas, one of the largest states in the nation, so clearly “executive experience” doesn’t count for much.

Speaking of experience, understand that any talk about experience in the campaign was never about determining if someone has the experience to be President. Experience was just another talking point in a tactic in the strategy to gain an advantage over the opponent to win the keys to the big White House.

The challenge is to determine if someone will do a great job of something they have never done before. This is especially a challenge in a presidential campaign as there are really no other jobs that compare. One has to look at other endeavors that people have taken on and look at the way they have taken them on to determine, if indeed a candidate has the ability to be a good over even great president.

Fortunately, for the last two years, we have been witnessing such an endeavor, this historic election campaign. A successful campaign both involves choosing exceptional people for the job at hand and leading these people in an effective manner. As luck would have it, these two abilities are perhaps the most important for a president as well. You might be able to get away with appointing your buddies to run a state, but clearly, this does not work well when running a large countrys.

While disagreeing on just about everything else, pundits on both sides have agreed that Senator Obama has run one of the best campaigns ever. A well managed, disciplined and excellently lead campaign. Many say even a brilliant campaign. He has raised more money than another other candidate in history from a record number of donors taking full advantage of the Internet. A campaign that started from nothing a mere two years ago and outflanked the Clinton’s, the most powerful political machine in the country. No small feat. For the first time in years, a Democrat has a better ground game, mobilizing hundreds of thousands of people. Looks like being a community organizer really paid off.

Now to Senator McCain. With an unpopular Republican president and a crumbling economy, it is not apparent that even a flawless campaign would have done the trick. What is apparent that his train wreck of a campaign will most likely not. Remember way back to the primaries, where he planned a $150 million effort complete with a $10,000 a day bus. Well, the fundraising came up way short and he was forced to ditch the bus, his campaign staff and fly coach to New Hampshire. This does not bode well for someone hoping to be President in economically challenging times. He was meet by an aid at the airport. Traveling around the state to countless town hall meetings, he rebuilt his campaign and the rest is history. Certainly an inspiring comeback story, but, since he seems to be more adept at working by him self rather than leading a huge team. This is fine for a maverick Senator but will not work at all well for a president.

In spite of a military background, where discipline is not just a nice to have, it can be a matter of life and death; the McCain campaign has been sloppy. They have had trouble sticking to message. Staff spent $150,000 on clothes for Gov. Palin, not even thinking how off the hockey mom Joe Six Pack message that was. Even worse, they let the candidate take the fall. Yikes. Campaign staff has been complaining about Gov. Palin to the media. Again, this is not useful and speaks to a lack of discipline and leadership in the campaign. Such leaks are bad for a campaign. Just think how bad they could be for the country in a time of crisis.

The drama of the McCain campaign often draws more media attention than the message. We have enough problems in this world. While McCain’s drama makes good television, we really don’t need a president that seems to need to manufacture such distractions.

It almost is a shame that Senator Obama is a great inspiring speaker. This is what people first notice. Some don’t look beyond, dismissing him as an “empty suit”. Once you get beyond the soaring rhetoric, you will discover a lot more than empty. He has the ability to be a great president. He is focused, disciplined and is a very effective leader who surrounds himself with bright and capable people.

Even if you believe he is a socialist (I don’t), I argue that it is better to have someone who can successfully execute such an agenda as president rather than someone who will continue to bungle along with the free market. So what if he “pals around” with the “wrong people”. If you do your homework, he also “pals around” with the “right people” as well. McCain has some shady characters in his past as well. Anyway, courting such a diversity of opinions is a sign of a great leader.

Sen. Obama has lead a masterful campaign that has overwhelmed the Clinton machine and McCain, who has been running for president for the last decade.

His execution has been close to flawless. He is determined and relentless.

This is a guy you want on your side. This is the guy we need to lead the country.